Case studies / JWC

How a reseller replaced gut feel with 86% forecast accuracy

+86%

Forecast accuracy, and climbing

Millions

In annual purchasing now sized by the system

5 mo

From raw data to a live system

Ever bought Nike or Adidas gear on Amazon?

Chances are, you've purchased from one of the platform's top 100 Nike and Adidas resellers. We partnered with them to overhaul their inventory forecasting, helping them predict demand more accurately, reduce stockouts, and avoid tying up cash in excess inventory.


Here's what we learned from applying AI to inventory planning at scale, and how the same principles can help businesses of any size make smarter operational decisions.

What we built

The system sits between JWC's sales history and its purchase orders. We built it on PostgreSQL, pulling live marketplace data through the Amazon SP API and forecasting in Darts. Five parts: a pipeline that unifies internal and external data, two applications that size the orders, a clustering layer so products are compared against the right peers, and a governance loop that watches its own accuracy and retrains before it drifts. We left the order itself with the buyer.

1.

Unifies the data before anything models it

JWC's own sales history plus large scale external market data, pulled automatically and standardized into one always current dataset, whatever format or currency it arrived in. Pulls are paced to respect source limits. Nothing downstream works without this.
2.

Finds the creators who fit the brief

Each product gets a forecast down to size and colour, with a 95% confidence range. A spreadsheet and an instinct become a number with a stated margin, and every order is checked against how it actually sold to sharpen the next one.
3.

Surfaces the new products worth stocking

Every month's supplier list gets checked against market demand and margin at supplier cost. Candidates only come forward when both hold, so a popular product that barely breaks even is not mistaken for a winner.
4.

Compares products against the right peers

Products group into five sales categories: steady, seasonal, fast ramp, promo driven, and brand new. One model averaging across all of them is where accuracy was leaking, so both forecasts above now run on the right comparison set.
5.

Watches its own accuracy and retrains

Data shifts quarter over quarter, and a model that was right last year quietly stops being right. The system tracks its accuracy against what actually sold and retrains on a schedule, which is why the number is still climbing.
“We size every purchase order against the forecast now. It has held up against what actually sold.”
Jake Carter
CEO, JWC Distribution

The largest recurring decision in the business now runs on a number instead of an instinct. Sales history and market data arrive clean, every product is forecast to size and colour against the right peers, new candidates surface monthly, and the system retrains before it drifts. Accuracy sits at 86% and is still climbing.

Want a forecasting system built like JWC's? Get in touch.

About JWC
JWC is a privately held e-commerce business focused on product reselling. Buying decisions, what to stock and how much, are the largest recurring capital decision it makes.
Tags
Product & engineering
Tech stack
PostgreSQL
Amazon API
Amazon SageMaker
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